As many of you know, the next two weeks are critical in determining TiVo Inc’s future. If they are able to prevail in defending their “time warp” patent versus Dish Network, with court proceedings beginning today, TiVo should be able to work out royalty arrangements with other DVR providers - in or out of the courtroom.

Reuters says: TiVo Chief Executive Tom Rogers last month said a Tivo victory in the case could open the door to either a bounty of payments, since TiVo could then file similar suits against other DVR distributors, or more licensing agreements. “It will certainly cause people to think long and hard not only about Tivo’s brand … and the best of our engineering, but on a whole different level of what we mean in the mix if our intellectual property is upheld in the courts,” Rogers said at the Reuters Global Technology, Media and Telecoms Summit.

Satellite providers have used DVRs, which allow viewers to pause live television and record dozens of hours of programing, to woo customers away from cable companies. In turn, more and more cable providers are placing cable boxes with DVRs in their subscribers’ homes. A court win might empower TiVo to challenge the technology in other DVRs. However, EchoStar, a far larger company than Tivo whose 2005 revenue of over $8 billion is more than 40 times that of its rival, could perhaps outlast TiVo during an extended appeals process, even if it doesn’t defeat TiVo in court.

Let’s face it… if you’re a journalist, bashing TiVo is good for business. Very few companies inspire the cult-like loyalty and name recognition (a small player like) TiVo enjoys. There’s nothing like a negatory article to energize the masses. That could explain why every few months both the Motley Fool and Phillip Swann of TV Predictions claim TiVo is dying and/or will be acquired.

While it’s possible TiVo may die or be bought, their reasoning is illogical. Both point to TiVo’s Valentine’s Day mixer as a red flag. Do critics chime in that McDonalds is doomed whenever they release a bizarre television commercial? TiVo’s ultimate success or failure cannot (and should not) be gauged by a small marketing experiment designed to excite fans.

It’s true TiVo will lose a ton of subscribers when their deal with DirecTV expires. However, Comcast has roughly twice as many potential customers (~32 million) as DTV. It’s true TiVo’s release of the Series 3 HD model is taking too long. However, many of us will wait patiently for a HD stand-alone box while TiVo continues to add Series 2 subscribers. It’s true TiVo has not been profitable with the exception of one quarter. However, TiVo is investing in themselves by acquiring customers. Not to mention, it’s that critical mass of subscribers which has allowed them to sell more advertising at presumably higher rates.

In all likelihood, TiVo will never die. This kind of branding and buzz would be snapped up in a heartbeat if the current management team failed and TiVo were in trouble. More importantly, DVR technology is here to stay. I’m fine with competition in the marketplace — it forces companies to innovate and keep prices reasonable.

I know you visit my site for the hard-hitting journalism ;), so I asked the question many of us have been wondering… and during a brief email exchange Phillip Swann informed me he owns “zero stock.”

Swanni says: Unlike TiVo, tech companies such as Apple and Google have enjoyed remarkable success in the last year. So they are now getting the overwhelming (and sometimes gushing) coverage that TiVo once enjoyed. Tech reporters — like everyone else in the media — loves a winner, or at least the appearance of a winner. Apple and Google now look like winners while TiVo looks like a loser.

Fool says: If there’s anything the Olympics bring to mind, it’s the thrill of victory … and the agony of defeat. Not that TiVo’s a full-on defeat, but for the past couple of years, “disappointment” seems to be a reasonable word to describe the company. I was once a TiVo bull — I even owned shares long ago — but lately it seems as if TiVo has stalled out in the innovation department.

Echostar’s DISH satellite launch has been rescheduled for tomorrow. As I posted earlier, the ocean launch will be webcast live. Supposedly this new satellite will provide DISH with additional bandwidth to expand their HD offerings… but I’m just interested in seeing the rocket take off.

Sea Launch says: After a halt in the countdown for launch on February 8, Sea Launch is now preparing for a second launch attempt on Sunday, February 12, with liftoff planned for 3:35pm PST (23:35 GMT).

The Zenit-3SL rocket is now being erected on the launch pad, and preparations are underway at the launch site. On launch day, the rocket will lift the 4,333 kg (9,553 lb.) EchoStar X satellite to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO), on the way to its final orbital position of 110 degrees West Longitude.

“We understand the ground support system issue we observed during countdown last Wednesday and we are confident that our corrective action will support a successful liftoff on Sunday,” said Jim Maser, president and general manager of Sea Launch.

Echostar plans to expand DISH Network bandwidth with Wednesday’s launch of satellite X. Adding an extra satellite doesn’t really impress me, but I am intrigued by the launch details. As with DirecTV and XM, Echostar has enlisted Sea Launch’s Odyssey platform — a vessel that motors out to sea for launch.

Sea Launch will be providing about two hours of live Echostar X coverage via webcast beginning at 3:15pm PST on 2/8.

Sea Launch says: Sea Launch receives satellites at the Home Port facility in Long Beach, California. Following the completion of fueling and encapsulation in the payload processing facility, the integrated payload unit is transferred to the assembly and command ship for integration with the launch vehicle. The horizontally integrated rocket is then transferred to the launch platform, where it is stored in an environmentally controlled hangar during transit to the equator.

Upon arrival at the launch site, the launch platform is positioned at 154 degrees West Longitude, ballasted to its launch depth and oriented to minimize wind and wave effects. At L-27 hours prior to liftoff, the rocket is rolled out of its environmentally protected hangar and automatically erected on the launch pad.

Propellant chilldown begins at L-4 hours and 20 minutes, with loading commencing L-2 hours and 30 minutes before liftoff. Launch support personnel transfers to the assembly and command ship prior to propellant loading. The large transporter/erector arm is lowered 17 minutes prior to flight, signaling all parameters are “go” for launch.

On Malik reports EchoStar (aka DISH Network) has participated in the current round of Sling Media funding. Combined with Echostar’s investment in Archos, there’s a high potential for synergistic devices. I give them credit for aggressively investing in these unproven, peripheral technologies… then again, maybe that’s what a #2 needs to do in order to remain competitive. I also congratulate the Sling folks for executing their game plan well — these additional investments (to the tune of $46.6 million) wouldn’t have come without the good sales and positive press they’ve received.

DirecTV’s press conference isn’t until Thursday evening, but two manufacturers have already outted DirecTV 2Go. First was Humax with a generic looking PMC. Next up is RCA, with this sexy Lyra X3000. In addition to the DTV interface and content, these devices also handle a variety of multimedia. The Lyra is expected to hit stores this month at a competitive $399.

Details of the DTV 2Go service itself are still sketchy at this point, though it’s clear it will not be immediately available upon the Lyra’s release — a free software upgrade will be available later this year. It’s not clear what XM (XM2Go) and TiVo (TiVoToGo) have to say about their naming strategy.
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Guess that LCD TV running TiVo software didn’t pan out, as Humax two-times TiVo and integrates a DirecTV tuner instead. First up, the 20″ SD model, followed later in the year by a 16:9 32″ HDTV.

But wait, it gets better… DirecTV 2Go is official and will be powered by a Humax portable media player (PMP).

DirecTV 2Go & PMP Press Release
Humax LCD TV(s) With DirecTV Press Release

Humax says: The HUMAX DIRECTV 2Go compliant PMP device is designed for a direct connection to a DIRECTV DVR, which will allow the consumer to transfer DIRECTV content recorded at home - a key benefit of the HUMAX platform. Additionally the device features DIRECTV branding throughout the User Interface including a DIRECTV approved playlist interface similar to DIRECTV receivers. In this relationship, the PMP device is HUMAX-branded, and will be sold at numerous retail and internet retail outlets. The device is scheduled for release later this year and in line with DIRECTV’s launch of this new service. In additional to DIRECTV content device will support music (MP3 and WMA) as well as photos and other non DIRECTV videos.

“The HUMAX LCD TVs with integrated DIRECTV Tuners make it possible for a DIRECTV customer to simply connect a coaxial cable for a true plug-and-play experience, there is no need for external wiring or connections associated with an external set-top box,” said HUMAX USA’s vice president of business development and strategic marketing, Tony Goncalves. “And with DIRECTV’s high-quality digital signal, the picture is second to none.” The 20-inch model is 4:3 and features a modem and USB port, component video input, two composite video inputs, and an audio and video output. Available in the first half of 2006, the 20-inch model has an anticipated MSRP of $749. The 32-inch model will ship with a DIRECTV MPEG4 TV module consisting of a DIRECTV HD Tuner, ATSC tuner, component video, composite video, S-video and HDMI inputs. HUMAX plans on developing additional modules to support future DIRECTV hardware. The company expects the 32-inch HD model to be available in Q4, with pricing to be determined.