Forrester Research just released the results of a survey showing that consumers don’t care that much about a la carte channels and wouldn’t be willing to pay very much for the privilege. I might not have agreed a few years ago, but here’s why my opinion has changed:

1. Better shows on more cable channels
   ESPN and Comedy Central used to be the only networks I watched on cable, but now I regularly tune in to FX, TNT and the SciFi network at the very least.
   
   
2. On-demand viewing
   By ordering Netflix DVDs or downloading shows from the Web, I can get access to almost any content I want. If I wanted to drop my cable subscription, I’d virtually be able to get a la carte viewing through other distribution sources. (ESPN being the big exception)

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Ben Drawbaugh over on EngadgetHD reports that Time Warner Cable will be deploying switched digital video (SDV) to 50% of its markets before the end of 2007. That’s great news in the sense that SDV should free up significant bandwidth. Like analog reclamation, SDV will make it possible to offer more HD content as well as new apps like Time Warner’s Start Over service.

Unfortunately, as Ben points out, SDV is not great news for TiVo Series3 (and potentially stand-alone Moxi) owners. Today’s CableCARDs only permit one-way communication (technically that’s not exactly true, but for all practical purposes it is), which means TiVo customers won’t be able to access switched content, including any new HD channels.

Two-way CableCARDs are coming, but not quickly enough. Despite the fact that cable operators may be getting two-way cards in time for the 7/07 deadline (they need them for VOD services as well as SDV), those cards haven’t been certified for retail devices. Sorry TiVo customers — you’ll have to wait for CableCARD 2.0 and refresh that hardware.

I heard some interesting news on a call today. Apparently this past weekend may have been the worst ever for the big three TV networks. On Saturday night CBS, ABC and NBC got a total audience share of 14. Eek!

I was just remarking yesterday that there seem to be fewer shows on network TV that I want to watch (both Studio 60 and Veronica Mars were canceled). Not that I’m spending much time watching online video today, but no doubt that will change over the next few years.

In the meantime, basic cable seems to be stepping up to the plate. USA Network’s Starter Wife had a good first week, and my favorite new show (which thankfully got renewed for the fall) is The Riches. (Don’t tell me about the season finale because I haven’t watched it yet!) It used to be you could get good shows on premium cable channels, but not so much on the basic tier.

Is cable finally starting to live up to its promise now that Internet TV is looming? And how are the broadcast networks going to survive?

If you scroll down TechMeme today past all the news about Microsoft’s surface computing concept (way cool), you’ll land on several articles about CBS’s acquisition of Last.fm. I have a very selfish reason for finding this interesting. If Last.fm warrants a buy-out by CBS (to to the tune of $280M), maybe that means Pandora will survive. The way I figure it, either someone with a large bankroll picks it up to compete with CBS, or, preferably, legislators finally recognize just how valuable Pandora-like services are and shut down the CRB’s plans to impose unworkable royalty fees.

Okay, probably just wishful thinking. Please don’t take away my Pandora.

It’s a day full of TiVo. The company reports quarterly earnings this afternoon and apparently none of the financial analysts agree on how investors should react to a predicted $.02 per-share loss. I borrowed the title of this post from a Motley Fool article, which goes on to report that seven analysts recommend TiVo as a buy, four as a hold and six as a sell.

Interestingly, if TiVo can manage to beat Wall Street expectations by just a smidge, it could end up profitable for the first (second?) time in the company’s history. There are several new media extender products launching, but few if any are backed by companies without other business interests. TiVo is traveling a very solitary road, and it is still trying to prove it can continue to do so successfully.

In other news, TiVo announced yesterday that it has formed a partnership with Seven Media Group to bring TiVo services to Australia and New Zealand. Time to kick back with that vegemite sandwich…

Whether you like Apple TV or not, last100 (via AwkwardTV) reports it’s relatively easy now to create plug-in applications with the unofficial AppleTV software development kit (SDK). In a closed ecosystem like AppleTV, having a hacker’s SDK is probably crucial to acceptance and proliferation among the geek community.

What will be interesting to me is how the Apple development environment ends up comparing to deliberately-open TV environments. For example, the Open Cable Application Platform (OCAP) is designed to make it easy for third parties to create cable set-top applications. Motorola (my employer), among others, has introduced an OCAP SDK that will be packaged alongside a Motorola set-top for anyone who wants to build apps for cable TV hardware. Mind you, we’re probably talking about development shops as opposed to individuals, but I do wonder how innovation will play out differently in an open environment versus a proprietary one. And yes, I do recognize the irony in considering cable TV an open environment.

The argument I hear about television is that we’ll never move completely to a pay-per-program model because the vast majority of people like being able to sit mindlessly in front of a TV screen and channel surf. I agree because that theory has already so clearly played out in the radio world. As popular as the iPod franchise is (we have at least three in my house), it doesn’t take the place of radio.

Maybe it’s because radio is so important that the business of radio is so royally screwed up. The CRB is threatening to kill off much of Internet radio, the two satellite radio providers in existence are cozying up to the FCC in hopes of merging, and few terrestrial radio programs survive on the air today unless they appeal to the lowest common listener denominator. What’s the deal?

Obviously people want radio because companies are busy figuring out ways to stream it to every kind of device. But that technology is going to be worthless if the radio sucks or if subscription fees price the mass market right out of the market. I don’t know what the solution is, but I sure wish someone would figure it out.