Deployment of the big Virgin Media TiVo fall update begins tonight according to reports (and photos) from online forums. Amongst the changes are a refreshed YouTube app, full BBC iPlayer support, automatic padding, TiVo control via iPad or iPhone, and support for premium Spotify subscribers, with that app supposedly landing on the 29th. Additionally, there are a variety of other small improvements and bug fixes.
Overall, I’d say TiVo and Virgin are crushing it in the UK — emphasized by brisk sales and an astonishing forecast. It’s just a shame that TiVo doesn’t treat its US retail customers with the same level of respect or interest… where software and communication updates are few and far between, with limited community engagement, foreshadowing, or transparency.
Then again, TiVo’s US retail customer base continues to shrink… so they may be prioritizing appropriately. Unless the lack of updates and communication drives defections and inhibits potential subscribers. Some interesting CalbleCARD stats to contemplate… (in relation to TiVo losing a net 43,000 – 72,000 retail subscribers each quarter over the last few years).
Well if they’d get over the schizophrenic marketing plan in the US. They should be pushing the partnerships harder beyond niche players like RCN.
It’s a great example of how having the best product out there isn’t always enough.
“Overall, I’d say TiVo and Virgin are crushing it in the UK — emphasized by brisk sales and an astonishing forecast. It’s just a shame that TiVo doesn’t treat its US retail customers with the same level of respect or interest… where software and communication updates are few and far between, with limited community engagement, foreshadowing, or transparency.”
Meh. I’m all for community engagement and transparency, but all that pales before delivering a good functioning platform.
Apple has turned its back on community engagement and transparency in recent years, and no one seems to care very much. (Well, I do, but I’m no longer in Cupertino’s targeted market.)
As a happy TiVo customer who’s still not compelled enough by the UI to move up from my TiVo HD to the Premiere platform, I’m glad to have Virgin Media helping to fund TiVo’s R&D to make the new platform better.
It’s all the same platform at the end of the day, and any improvements made to the Virgin boxes (or the RCN boxes) will end up benefitting US retail CableCARD users as well.
(Tangentially, I wonder how the platter drive armageddon in Thailand is impacting both TiVo and the whole DVR market. I’m lucky that I randomly picked up a couple of cheap 2TB spares for TTG archiving just a few weeks before hell broke loose and prices tripled…)
TiVo is not Apple. The need to motivate rather than alienate the core if they want us to continuing evangelizing. I certainly recommend TiVo less frequently these days. Yeah, it’s probably still the smoothest and most reliable DVR experience. But there’s a trade off in complexity (CableCARDs, SDV), features (On Demand), and areas where the competition exceeds them (remote access, external storage, whole home). Not to mention the incomplete HDUI is downright offensive at this point. Do we matter that little? Having said that, I regularly contemplate expanding into a Premiere Elite with Lifetime… mmmmm, so much storage and tuners.
“Some interesting CalbleCARD stats to contemplate…”
As always, take anything the execrable Todd Spangler reports with a pound or two of salt.
CableCARD usage is net flat, according to Todd’s (corrected from his originally incorrect) report, but it’s worth noting that it covers a period prior to the recent FCC regs requiring easy self-installations. Also worth wondering if Todd is including Verizon in his count of MSO’s here, as I suspect that FIOS is the wire of choice for CableCARD users.
I was mostly referring to the 585,000 CableCARD deployments. I’m wondering if that is all-time or current? Regardless, I’m assuming the vast majority of them are TiVo-related. Also assuming most TiVo owners subscribe to digital cable, versus going exclusively OTA, we can extrapolate TiVo hasn’t moved many Series 3, TiVo HD, or Premiere units over the last 5 years.
Back to Virgin for a second, I think this deal effectively saves the company (from being more than a patent troll). I’d originally assumed the renewed DirecTV relationship would have provided similar, but it’ll be too little too late. So Virgin is a big, big win. 220,000 new boxes in 9 months is easily double or triple the number of retail US TiVo Premiere units that will move in all of 2011.
“Having said that, I regularly contemplate expanding into a Premiere Elite with Lifetime… mmmmm, so much storage and tuners.”
TiVo is certainly not without its faults. But we continue to live the Golden Age of CableCARD, and TiVo is the easiest way to get the optimal CableCARD experience.
(And for everyone who thinks OTT is going to go mainstream in the lean-back any day now bringing about the end of the Golden Age of CableCARD, think about the recent stats showing Netflix consuming 37% of all prime-time IP bandwidth in the US, think about how limited Netflix’ footprint still is, and think about how all this is going to scale. Multicast exists in the lean-back for a very real reason.)
“I was mostly referring to the 585,000 CableCARD deployments. I’m wondering if that is all-time or current?”
Whatever the reality is, I’ve been reading Todd long enough to know that he’s generally playing fast and loose with his choice of stats to make retail CableCARD look even more marginal than it actually is.
“Back to Virgin for a second, I think this deal effectively saves the company (from being more than a patent troll) … So Virgin is a big, big win. 220,000 new boxes in 9 months is easily double or triple the number of retail US TiVo Premiere units that will move in all of 2011.”
Yeah. Like I say, I’m happy to have Virgin funding TiVo’s R&D. It’s all the same platform at the end of the day. If the platform improves, the experience for US retail customers will improve.
Assuming the FCC keeps slowly but surely doing its job, we may actually hit the day where TiVo has a product they can really advertise and market to mainstream US retail consumers. (That day isn’t here quite yet, but it genuinely could be coming.)
Visually it looks similar and TiVo would like it to be the same platform, but I suspect the Cisco hardware guts (and rumored Samsung revision) are somewhat different. As far as us benefiting, Virgin’s TiVo has featured a much more complete HDUI since launch last winter… and we’ve yet to see the fruits of that development. Not sure I share your optimism for a brighter retail US TiVo DVR future, with or without FCC intervention. Instead of screwing around with Nero for the (poor) PC-based TiVo a few years back, they should have gone back to a Philips to create connected TiVo Blu-ray players.
I think “limited community engagement” is to be expected in the US. I mean when is the last positive news they could of given US Premiere owners? Unfortunately, the stalled development of the Premiere in the US is further killing their brand. I can’t remember the last time I recommended a TiVo to anyone.
“I suspect the Cisco hardware guts (and rumored Samsung revision) are somewhat different.”
If the hardware is different (and better) for Virgin, I’d assume TiVo would leverage economies of scale by using that same hardware in its next-gen box for the US, both for MSO’s and retail, no?
I’ve always seen the Premiere as an in-between release, which is partly why I’ve been sticking with my TiVo HD and waiting to leapfrog a hardware rev before upgrading.
“Not sure I share your optimism for a brighter retail US TiVo DVR future, with or without FCC intervention.”
I don’t think TiVo is ever going to a majority taste in the US. But if the FCC continues doing the work they’ve been doing of late to create a safe space for retail CableCARD, I don’t see why TiVo shouldn’t be able to leverage the work they’re doing with Virgin to create a noticeably larger retail niche for themselves in the US.
This whole discussion reminds me of a passage I’ve been reading from the book “Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?”
…understand that your competition has been building a faceless machine exactly like yours. And when customers have the choice between faceless options, they pick the cheapest, fastest, more direct option. If you want customers to flock to you, it’s tempting to race to the bottom of the price chart. There’s not a lot of room for profit there, though. You can’t out-Amazon Amazon, can you?
In a world that relentlessly races to the bottom, you lose if you also race to the bottom. The only way to win is to race to the top.
When your organization becomes more human, more remarkable, faster on its feet, and more likely to connect directly with customers, it becomes indispensable.
TiVo needs to get back to connecting directly with customers in the US retail and MSO market. Virgin is demonstrating that they are racing to the top not with a low-cost option but with a premier offering and a direct connection with their current and future customers.
Dave, I definitely don’t regret my Elite purchase, but I feel the same way. I find myself caring less and less about TiVo these days. I find I no longer expect updates or fixes. I don’t think we will ever see a finished HDUI. If we do, it will be too late to matter or for most to care. I don’t see new features really being added either or if we do get anything it will be well after Virgin, RCN, and other MSO partners get it.
I agree I would love to see a Blu-Ray player with TiVo built in, but even better at this point would be a Blu-Ray Player with a Preview built in even if it was tunerless. Of course that would require streaming support which at this point probably won’t happen till 2012 at least if ever.
TiVo can’t survive as a niche player. Especially an increasingly irrelevant one.
They’ve got to reach out to one of the big telcos or cable systems and try to do another Virgin type deal.
And even then… they’re a DVR at heart and as all video moves into the cloud, no one is going to worry too much about storage space. The quality may not be as good, but the average viewer won’t notice so long as they can watch the same movie from 5 different locations/devices.
Cable cards are a nice idea, but they’re not something your average technophobic consumer is going to want to mess with, no matter how simple they actually are.
CableCards are a very 90’s idea established in the 90’s. What the industry SHOULD do is establish a digital signature where the cablecard’s ROM can be incorporated onto the motherboard and the MSO’s can then flash the ROM with their code. Eliminate the darn cards. Which is a step further than what the tru2way nonsense was gonna do with flashable cards.
In any event, as far as Tivo goes, they are not run by people energetic about technology. They are run by a former network guy. And it shows. Painfully so. Someone needs to mail them about 500 copies of a book called Blue Ocean Strategy and make all employees and executives read it and learn what it means to innovate and rise above the noise. Like that one time 13 years ago when they did something relevant by releasing a DVR.
The cable industry is large and slow… change is expensive. But in 2005 the cable industry did propose digital certs to replace CableCARDs in 2008. Yeah, that never happened. ;)
https://zatznotfunny.com/2005-12/dcas-to-replace-cablecard-in-2008/
Why has CableCard technology been such a hassle for the industry? There have been other forms of subscriber identification and authentication that works well in other industries. Take the SIM card for example. People (even teens) can easily put their SIM card in a new phone. Done. How about the access cards for DirecTV and Dish Network? You just slide it in and activate it. SIMPLE. Even activating or deactivating a SIRIUS/XM radio is simply a phonecall (and ESN) away.
Cable cards aside, I think a huge mistake from Tivo is not innovating or finishing their “Premier” DVR interface. Even the deal with DirecTV as defunct as it seems is the old Tivo software on an older (HR22) DirecTV Receiver. Perhaps they took some of that inspiration and motivation they had working with Virgin Media and finished their HDUI and partnered with more MSO’s (Satellite providers included), they would be on the road to success.
But frankly, we don’t see that happening. With providers in house DVR’s getting better and better, why should someone go with a more expensive, 3rd party solution anymore? This year it’s Verizon’s IMG 1.9 and now in Q4, DirecTV’s HDUI. Next year it will be Comcast’s new 16:9 HD guide and more Cox Trio (new 16:9 HD UI). And who the heck knows who or what else… In my case, I have the DirecTV HDUI on an HR24 receiver. Why should I downgrade to the Tivo SDUI from 6 years ago when my solution works great for me? What about the upcoming 5 tuner PIP & RVU comparable HR34? This is one provider people! Dish Network is coming out with true multiroom and the XIP series. I’ve seen neat stuff out of Comcast labs coming in 2012 as well (Xfinity Spectrum, anyone?)
It just seems that here in the states, Tivo is just stalled. I really wish that wasn’t the case. The more innovation and more players in this sector means better products for us end users. We want someone to set the bar and be the driver of fresh, innovative, luxurious products for us to enjoy. Right now adequate software from service providers paired with OTT devices like the Roku, Boxee, or heck even an XBOX 360 or PS3, is good enough.
TiVo recognized a few years ago that a retail centric strategy was not going to work so they’ve correctly shifted their focus to an MSO-centric strategy. A side effect of that strategy is that retail customers in markets where TiVo does not have a strategic agreement in place may benefit. The perfect example is the Elite which is essentially the Premiere-Q with a larger hard drive. Saying that TiVo has stalled in the domestic market is incorrect. They’ve been doing the foundational work to create a unified platform which essentially means abstracting the application software from the hardware. They’ve also been applying significant resources in providing the hooks to allow them to receive cable operator VOD and backchannel SDV signalling from the myriad of headend equipment deployed with the Cable Operators.
The fact that the Virgin Media interface looks surprisingly similar to the TiVo Premiere interface is not a coincidence. We will see many of the Virgin advances brought to the US in the near future and vice versa. For example, Virgin does not yet have Multi-Room Streaming (MRS) but RCN does.
We know that TiVo has now enabled the 2nd core on the Premiere platform which has already resulted in a performance boost and we also know that Virgin’s 15.2 update is performing Flash rendering significantly faster. These improvements will come to the US platform in the next major release for the Premiere platform probably in the spring of 2012.
I think the delay in releasing the TiVo Preview extender to retail is related to the inability to support the OTT streaming services in the current 14.9 baseline. RCN does not require that support other than youtube.
As Tom Roger’s recently stated, “TiVo has repositioned our company to be a full provider of hardware and software solutions, meeting the needs of the operator, in a way that other companies in this space have just been unable to achieve.”
Further, “More importantly, by leveraging the R&D elements of our retail business into our operator business, TiVo is the only vendor that is in a unique position of having an array of operator products that benefit from 10 years of direct interaction with retail subscribers and households. And by being in retail, we continue to believe we are able to control our own destiny, innovate and deliver the best product with a well-recognized brand. That pedigree of innovation is one of the things operators find extremely valuable.”
“Why has CableCard technology been such a hassle for the industry?”
Because the MSO’s want to own the box, and thus own the customer. And so the MSO’s will put up as many obstacles to retail CableCARD as the Feds will let them. That’s been the game for the past decade, and its the game going forward.
I’m a FiOS customer, but they don’t own me as a customer.
I’ve got a TiVo. I can switch MSO’s tomorrow and keep all my saved programs and my UI experience. I can even cancel all my monthly video services and keep my archive. And I can buy high-very high-PQ VOD without my MSO getting a cut. MSO’s don’t like any of those scenarios, for obvious reasons. So the MSO’s try to force retail CableCARD to margins as much as the FCC will let them get away with to prevent capital from flowing into 3rd party retail CableCARD solutions that would hit the mainstream.
I’m on the fringe, enjoy my TiVo, and hope the FCC is able to create the space to let others have my experience.
“Right now adequate software from service providers paired with OTT devices like the Roku, Boxee, or heck even an XBOX 360 or PS3, is good enough.”
It just don’t scale to the mainstream in lean-back. If you’re happy, then you’re happy. But the infrastructure for IP delivery to the mainstream just ain’t there, and would cost trillions to build out. In the meantime, CableCARD lets you get the best value out of the quite lovely mulitcast-verse we live in. Five hundred hi-res channels hitting your platter drive 24/7. Keep what you like. Platter drives are cheap when Thailand isn’t flooded.
Outside of the lean-back world, things are different. But in lean-back world, the architecture concerns loom large.
We live in the Golden Age of CableCARD, even if barely anyone knows it…
“I don’t see new features really being added either or if we do get anything it will be well after Virgin, RCN, and other MSO partners get it.”
My expectation is that we (retail customers) will get any Virgin improvements at the same time RCN and any other US MSO middlemen get it.
One platform. Many ways to reach the consumer. Retail is one of the many.
Sam, as an observer of this space I understand what TiVo is doing and why… and I support it. But as a customer, a completed UI and experience two years after release is pretty lame any way you slice it. Assuming your prediction pans out.
Cypher, after living with IMG 1.9 a little bit now I’m less enthusiastic. Still too cluttered and too slow (plus the color scheme and readability could use some work). BUT The new DirecTV UI looks HOT.
Chucky, RCN has streaming and we do not. What’s the window for “same time”? ;)
@Cyphersteam – nice analysis: TiVo used to be a verb.
Now it’s “are they still in business?”
As for cable cards/SIM cards: SIM cards come from the company that sells you the phone. If there’s a problem, you bring it back to the Verizon store and they give you a new one. Consumers don’t have that kind of fallback with cable cards. (And I’m guessing the iPhone/Android owning generation will have no idea what a SIM card is…)
@Chucky– you are, as you say, on the fringe. Your average home viewer is not all that concerned about the quality of the video they’re watching or how much storage capacity they have on their DVR. THey’re still gaping at how much better everything looks in HD and how easy it is to watch movie right from Netflix through their kids PlayStation. It’s all about convenience.
@Sam – don’t you think that ship has already sailed? A snazzy UI doesn’t really seem to be giving any of the existing MSO/Telco services an edge, most of them seem to have already developed their own next gen UI, so why would they go through the hassle of buying something from TiVo?
Speaking of UI, @Zatz – won’t everyone be getting a second chance when the primary UI moves over to a second screen experience and you’re looking at your EPG, VOD and recorded show list via some sort of tablet- (that’s a big UX challenge right now, figuring out how to take 2K channels and make them manageable for someone on a 7 or 8 inch screen)
Chances are they’ll all have some sort of Siri clone soon enough who you can ask to show you what football games are on now or even to show you the football game with the closest score.
Alan,
“don’t you think that ship has already sailed? A snazzy UI doesn’t really seem to be giving any of the existing MSO/Telco services an edge, most of them seem to have already developed their own next gen UI, so why would they go through the hassle of buying something from TiVo?”
Tell that to the 200,000+ users who just signed on with TiVo in the UK. The closest thing to TiVo right now in a cable operator provided set top is the FiOS 1.9 build and in my view after using it is still behind even the current version of TiVo for usability. Granted it does have an HD Guide and some nice features but it doesn’t support a QWERTY remote (i.e., the TiVo Slide) nor does it have the best 2nd screen companion app on the market. I still believe the unified search that TiVo offers is a big discriminator for content search. The big question in my mind is who is going to really figure out the content discovery equation first and who is going to figure out the social aspect of television.
I really believe the three-source hybrid viewing experience (linear, operator on-demand, and OTT) is still in its early stages and TiVo has an opportunity to be a key player in the market going forward.
Dave, I’ll grant you that March of 2012 will be two years since the release of the Premiere. Saying that they haven’t evolved the Premiere in that time isn’t 100% accurate. They’ve added a fantastic Pandora app and done a partial implementation of Hulu Plus. I believe enabling the 2nd core on the Elite and the release of 14.9 is the first step to finally get to a common baseline with Virgin. Only time will tell but when I get my 14.9 update tomorrow night I will keep you posted on their progress! :)
@Chucky,
How do you get the italics in your blog posts?
Thanks,
~Sam
@Sam – Let’s consider the possibility that those 200K people didn’t sign up for TiVo, but for Virgin, who still have that Apple-like coolness factor. Which adding TiVo certainly helps maintain. I just can’t think of an American service provider with similar caché
TiVo is a superior product – I have no quibble with that. It’s just not superior enough to make a TimeWarner give them millions of dollars to license their platform, particularly since the traditional on-screen program guide is not a long-term proposition.
Seeing if putting in HTML works for italics
Yeah, some basic HTML formatting is supported in the comments. For bold, surround the words with a < b > and a < / b > (without those spaces) or use an i for italics.
There’s not many parallels between the UK (or many overseas markets) and US TV. Charter is TiVo’s best bet in the US to move significant numbers of boxes, not that it saved Moxi, and assuming the new DirecTV TiVo is DOA (although maybe the continued delays means they’re producing a better product?) But the aggregate numbers of a few smaller players could add up… should they make TiVo their primary offering. For reference, here’s the top 25 cable providers by number of basic subscribers:
http://www.ncta.com/Stats/TopMSOs.aspx
For reference, here’s the top 25 cable providers by number of basic subscribers
And FWIW, Insight was gobbled up by TWC –> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/15/us-insight-timewarner-idUSTRE77D30220110815
The big unknown for TiVo is what will happen with their retail relationships with Comcast and Cox and whether they will strike some sort of deal with TWC, Cablevision, or BHN.
I tend to be more optimistic than most on the Comcast deal but I think there is a possibility of retail appeal of the Premiere platform if Comcast, TiVo, and Best Buy market it properly especially if we get MRS and my promised upgrade comes through making the box a premier platform again.
Dave you say assuming the new DirecTV TiVo is DOA (although maybe the continued delays means they’re producing a better product?)
I don’t think they are producing a better product. All the DirecTV zealots say otherwise. DirecTV doesn’t want a “better product”. They want THEIR product to be the better product. This is why they developed the HD-GUI. This is also why the 5 tuner HR34 is starting to be installed in homes. DirecTV wants their name on the innovative products, not someone else.
Now that they know what they have and given their inability to deploy something modern with TiVo in a timely fashion, I’m sure they’re rethinking their strategy. It looks to be the New England Comcast TiVo all over again…
Well I was very excited about the Elite, after going two years ignoring the Premiere because of its various issues (incomplete HDUI, 10 minute SD UI hangs, etc) which are still not fixed that I can tell. But after watching the Tivo Community forums on the random reboots for a few weeks (and even posting a poll), I’m no longer waiting. I’ve ordered an upgrade drive from Weaknees for my existing Tivo HD and don’t expect to be moving to an Elite anymore. Another lost sale.
I’ve also been trolling the DirecTV site given Comcast’s not allowing the HBO Go app on the Roku. Looks like I could save a little money, get more premium channels, better tennis coverage for the wife, etc. Still not planning to switch but thinking about it, something I never would have done in the past.
Tivo is slowly losing me as a customer. I’m already posting negative things about them on blogs all the time, and long past not recommending them to anybody else.
If it turns out that they fix the stability issues with the Elite (not a given–they haven’t with the Premiere and they’ve had a long time to do it), I MAY consider it again, but I’m not looking at it for quite some time I don’t think.
Glenn, I believe DirecTV is also blocking HBOGO on Roku… But I’m in the same boat as you – more storage for my existing TiVo (Premiere) or an Elite. I’m still undecided. But with the cable and sat providers also moving to more storage and more tuners (like DTV), maybe I’ll have other options at some point.
Yes, DirecTV does block HBOGO on the Roku. They also block their DirecTV iPad app on Jailbroken devices.
Think long and hard before switching to DirecTV. The grass is not always greener. Each provider has it’s long list of pro’s and con’s.
Yeah, aware of all those things. I actually kinda like Comcast, but this thing is pissing me off. I’d lose access to Xfinity web/iPhone which I use somewhat, and I don’t understand the alternatives. Of course I don’t have access to Comcast On Demand as a Tivo user, so that’s no loss, but I might have access to it soon via XBox support, though the year is ending soon and we still haven’t seen more details. I like and understand my Tivos, and know how to rip the DRM off the TTG transferred files. And watch my own content via TTG, though increasingly the lack of MKV support means hidef stuff simply doesn’t work so I’m increasingly using alternatives (actually make that almost exclusively now).
I should have left out the whole DirecTV thing since that isn’t really the point. The point is I still haven’t bought a box after the HD, despite paying lots and lots of attention. And since I’ve committed money to doing an upgrade INSTEAD of an Elite, simply to avoid the instability of the newer models, that’s pretty sad. It would probably have cost me less money to get an Elite honestly.
What are you all saving to your TiVos that you can’t get instantly online or save to your computer and burn as a DVD?
“What are you all saving to your TiVos that you can’t get instantly online or save to your computer and burn as a DVD?”
I don’t “save” anything to my TiVo that didn’t originate on my TiVo. TiVo is for harvesting the multicast, for playback of recently harvested stuff, and for Amazon a-la-carte VOD.
TiVo recordings get archived off of the TiVo after a decent interval. Playback of archived TiVo recordings occurs off of the TiVo via the quite essential Plex. No DVD burning required. (Occasionally, I’ll toss a whole season of an archived TV show back onto the TiVo, but that’s rare.)
TiVo finally figures out it should be building an actual single platform to deliver in multiple consumer spaces.
TiVo Warns That Costs Will Rise Next Year, But Hopes For Long-Term Payoff
“We’re investing substantially additional dollars this year to build a common code base” that would work on multiple platforms, CEO Tom Rogers says.
(And they say that they’ve got a HD stockpile to survive the Thailand apocalypse, but that the situation is “evolving”, which means they don’t, really.)
TiVo finally figures out it should be building an actual single platform to deliver in multiple consumer spaces.
TiVo told me that 3 or 4 CESes ago…